Polymarket odds of a January U.S. government shutdown jump to 77%
Betting activity on Polymarket is signaling growing concern that the U.S. government could shut down again before the end of January. The platform now puts the odds at 77% — a sharp increase of 67 percentage points in the past 24 hours.
The spike comes just days after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that another shutdown may be looming. Speaking to Fox Business on Thursday, Trump said, “We’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.”
The surge in betting followed comments from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who said Senate Democrats would not move forward with an appropriations bill if it includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Schumer called the DHS proposal “woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE,” adding that he would vote against it.
The renewed shutdown risk is adding uncertainty to the future of the CLARITY Act, a major crypto-related bill meant to clarify U.S. regulations. Progress on the bill has already been slowed by political gridlock and was previously delayed during the record 43-day government shutdown in October and November.
Doubts around the bill have also grown within the crypto industry. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and several other executives recently withdrew their support, arguing that the current draft could be worse than existing rules. “We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill,” Armstrong said on Jan. 15.
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, echoed those concerns in a report this week, pointing to unresolved disagreements over stablecoin yields. He said there are still no clear signs that lawmakers are close to a compromise, though the next four to six weeks could provide time to revive negotiations.
“The big question,” Thorn wrote, “is whether the stalled talks over stablecoin rewards can move forward and improve the chances of a bipartisan deal.”
Featured image from: cointelegraph.com