The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged four additional Solana ETF applications, sparking fresh speculation about potential approval. While some analysts believe Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs may have a better chance, the SEC’s latest moves suggest a growing focus on Solana-related filings.
On Tuesday, the SEC opened a public comment period for the Canary Solana Trust, a proposed ETF from Canary Capital. At the same time, it officially recognized applications from VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise, launching the formal review process. The SEC now has 21 days to approve, deny, or extend its evaluation—a timeline that often leads to delays. However, analysts believe 2024 could see approvals for Solana and other altcoins.
Market experts suggest Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs could be prioritized over Solana or XRP. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas recently assessed approval probabilities, ranking Litecoin first, followed by Dogecoin, with Solana and XRP trailing behind. He also noted that certain regulatory structures, such as filings under the 1940 Act, might increase approval odds even if spot ETFs face obstacles.
Grayscale’s Solana ETF application, acknowledged last week, further signals growing institutional interest in Solana. Meanwhile, asset managers continue to explore the space—Franklin Templeton recently filed for a Solana Trust, a step that could lead to an ETF submission soon.
Prediction markets are also adjusting expectations. Polymarket, a leading forecasting platform, currently gives an 82% chance of Solana ETF approval this year. Other altcoins, including Hedera, also have pending ETF applications, meaning the SEC’s decision-making process could extend beyond Solana.
Regulatory classification remains a crucial factor in determining ETF approvals. If the SEC provides clearer guidance on whether tokens are securities or commodities, multiple altcoin ETFs could be approved together. For now, Solana remains at the center of the SEC’s attention.
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