Former U.S. President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has strengthened his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the prediction markets, further solidifying his position in the race for the November election. According to the latest data from Polymarket on October 7, Trump’s chances of victory have risen to 50.8%, while Harris’s odds have dropped to 48.4%. This marks a 0.2% increase in Trump’s odds and a corresponding 0.2% decline for Harris within the last hour.
Trump Gains Momentum in Crypto-Based Prediction Markets
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based predictions platform using USDC stablecoin for betting, reflects Trump’s growing advantage. The shift in the odds is driven by key developments that have shaped voter sentiment, such as the failed assassination attempt against Trump in July, which caused a surge in his popularity on the platform.
After the Pennsylvania rally shooting, Trump’s predicted chance of victory jumped from 60% to 70% in a single day. However, his lead declined to 46% when Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate. Despite this, Trump regained momentum, pushing his chances to 52% compared to Harris’s 47% in the weeks that followed. By mid-September, the odds had evened out, with both candidates holding a 49% chance of winning.
Recent Surge for Trump
More recently, Trump has once again pulled ahead, reaching a 50% chance of victory, while Harris remains at 49%, according to a report from Finbold on October 4. The narrowing margin highlights the unpredictable nature of the election, with both candidates remaining competitive.
Attempts at Market Manipulation In early September, there were unsuccessful attempts to manipulate the prediction markets. As noted by X investigator Dumpster DAO, over $9 million worth of USDC was deployed to buy “yes” shares for Harris and “no” shares for Trump, aiming to artificially boost Harris’s odds. However, these efforts failed to impact the overall market sentiment.
Final Thoughts
Prediction markets offer a snapshot of public opinion and sentiment surrounding the 2024 presidential race, with both Trump and Harris having nearly equal chances of winning. As the election approaches, shifts in key events could tip the balance, underscoring the uncertainty and high stakes involved.
Featured image from: news.sky.com