Prediction Markets Bet Big on Crypto Boom in 2025
Crypto enthusiasts on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that 2025 will be a groundbreaking year for digital assets. According to a review by Cointelegraph, users on these platforms anticipate record highs for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), alongside major regulatory advancements in the cryptocurrency space.
Record Highs for BTC and ETH
Traders on Kalshi assign more than 60% odds that Bitcoin will reach at least $125,000 and Ether will hit $5,000 in 2025. Meanwhile, Polymarket users set a 50% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $120,000 by the end of March. To date, Bitcoin’s all-time high is around $108,300, while Ether’s record is $4,720.
Both platforms reflect growing optimism in crypto’s potential to deliver significant returns in the near future.
Regulatory Progress Predicted
Participants also expect regulators in the United States to approve several new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by mid-2025. Polymarket traders place the odds of approval at 75% for an XRP ETF, 69% for Solana (SOL), and 51% for Litecoin (LTC). The likelihood of a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF receiving the green light is set at 22%.
Kalshi users foresee a 59% chance that President-elect Donald Trump will establish a national Bitcoin reserve during his presidency, although Polymarket pegs the odds of him doing so within his first 100 days at just 29%.
Futures Markets Show Caution
In contrast, conventional futures markets predict more conservative growth for cryptocurrencies. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), March 2025 futures contracts for Bitcoin are priced at $98,000, while those for Ether are priced at $3,500—still a significant rise from current spot prices but falling short of the optimistic projections seen in prediction markets.
Understanding Prediction Markets
Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade contracts tied to specific outcomes, such as cryptocurrency price targets or regulatory decisions. Prices fluctuate based on the likelihood of these events, with the platforms gaining popularity for their accuracy during the 2024 U.S. elections. They forecasted not only Trump’s victory but also his party’s dominance in the U.S. House and Senate, achieving a trading volume exceeding $4 billion for election-related events.
Why It Matters
The predictions highlight growing confidence in the cryptocurrency sector’s long-term prospects. If realized, higher crypto prices and regulatory advancements could bolster institutional adoption and solidify crypto’s role in global finance.
While futures markets remain cautious, the optimism from prediction platforms reflects a broader belief that 2025 could mark a turning point for digital assets.
Featured image from: cryptopresales.com