Traders on Polymarket are betting there’s a 73% chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by May 31, 2026.
The odds jumped sharply on Friday after Iranian officials said the key shipping route would be temporarily reopened as part of a ceasefire agreement. At one point, the probability rose as high as 82% before easing back to 73%.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said commercial vessels are allowed to pass through the strait during the ceasefire period along designated routes.
Despite the optimism for May, traders are less confident about a quicker recovery. The odds of normal traffic returning by the end of April stand at around 40%.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, so any disruption has a major impact on global markets. Recent tensions in Iran have already caused volatility in both energy and crypto prices, as investors react to ongoing geopolitical risks.
Featured image from: cointelegraph.com